The Business of Making Money with Horses
By
Don Blazer
Copyright
© 2002
Lesson Five
Claiming to Make a Profit
If you think you can claim a race horse for $5,000 and move it up to a
$20,000 race, or claim for $25,000 and move into allowance or stakes company, race horses won’t make you any money.
Change your thinking. You are
dreaming, not scheming. Dreams do come
true, but not often enough to insure a comfortable living.
You’ve got to scheme—it’s the only way to make money with claiming
horses.
First, learn to think as a smart trainer, then claim cheap, race cheap
and lose the horse cheap. The behavior
of other trainers is what will make you money.
The statistics prove this premise, whether or not you wish to believe
it.
You can make money only if you are cold, calculating and ruthless. You must steel yourself for a rough time, and
you must be willing to try, try and try again.
Claiming horses are horses someone (trainers, maybe not the owners)
wants to sell. By setting a claiming
(selling) price on a horse, a trainer or owner establishes a level at which the
horse supposedly can compete and win.
Most often the horses are worth less than their claiming price, which is
an arbitrary figure used as a guide to bring horses into a race with other
horses of equal ability and value.
Frequently you can buy the horse at the barn for less than his
established claiming price.
You can claim (buy) a horse in a race if you hold a valid owner’s
license, have a trainer and either have a permit to claim, or have a horse
currently racing at the meet. Once you
qualify, all you do is follow the rules by filing out a claiming slip
completely and accurately, depositing the money (no personal checks) with the
paymaster of purses and dropping the claim slip within the allotted time
period. If the starting gate opens
properly, and the horse you’ve claimed leaves the gate, he or she is yours from
that moment on—win, lose, or draw, sore sound, or broken down. If your claim is the only claim and is
approved by the stewards, the horse is yours.
If others have made a claim for the same horse, there will be a drawing
immediately after the race among the claimants, and the winner will be given a
pickup slip by the paddock judge. The
paddock judge will also give a slip to the former trainer of the horse telling
that trainer to deliver the horse to the new owner. Usually a claimed horse will be sent to the
receiving barn for drug testing, and you, or your groom or your trainer, will
pick the horse up there. Some tracks do
not test all claimed horses and have specific areas where the horses are
“haltered” by the new owners.
There are a number of other regulations about claiming, all but one of
which can be disregarded at present. The
regulation to keep in mind is that in many states, you are required to race
your purchase during the next 30 days at a claiming price at least 25 per cent
higher than that at which you claimed the horse. It’s a move up the claiming ladder. It is what almost everyone wants to do.
Don’t plan on doing it.
It’s so hard to do, trainers call this “being
in jail.”
You may choose to run the horse at the higher price (example: if you
claimed for $5,000, you must race during the next 30 days for a price of at
least $6,250) just to learn about the horse, or to keep the horse fit without
additional work outs. But running at a
higher claiming price will be a learning experience only once. After that it will be a losing situation.
The horse may run well at the higher price, and even place. But it won’t last, and it won’t make you
money. Instead of dreaming, believe the
forthcoming statistics; they demonstrate vividly how the cards are stacked
against you. However, they also contain
the secret for success.
And keep in mind this is horse racing, and horses are they key. A horse which wins 25 per cent of the time
for one trainer will most likely win 25 per cent of the time for you. A horse which only wins one race in 12 will
probably only win one race in 12 for you.
Horses are horses are horses, and no matter what trainers tell you about
how good they are, the horses are the key.
Data gathered during a 99-day Quarter Horse meeting at Los Alamitos in
Good claim or bad, the trainer gets paid his day fee, which is why, when
asked about a poor performer in his barn, a trainer may reply, off the record,
“He’s better than an empty stall.”
There were 242 claims made during the race meeting being used as an
example. They were all recorded, including
19 horses which were claimed twice, and Miss Tripoli, which was claimed three
times. Tracing all of them during the
next six months was impossible, since some were sent to other tracks, retired,
or used for purposes other than racing.
Some of the ones which could be accounted for six months later are
listed, showing their earnings since being claimed and their current claiming
price. The sample (Chart A) is adequate
to show trends.
The first pattern which develops from this history of claimers is that
although some may run well at a higher claiming price for awhile, the majority
tend to drift downward. In six months,
75 per cent are running at the same price, or lower than originally claimed. Of the 2h5 per cent still running for more
than the original claim price, there is no guarantee they will earn money, will
be claimed at the higher price, or could be sold for the higher price. Running at a higher price does not mean
earning money.
The facts explode another myth—that certain trainers can locate a
horse’s problems, then improve him so he goes on to be a great champion. The record shows only three trainers actually
showed a profit, and that modest, on their
claims. Several consistently lost value
with their claims, and none improved their new horses spectacularly.
Chart A lists 28 horses. If an owner paid a trainer an average of
$1,000 per month to train, care for, shoe, medicate and race a horse, then the
horses listed would have had to earn $6,000 just to break even during the six
months following their claim. Only five
of 28, or 18 per cent, did that.
CHART A
Partial Listing of Claims
242 claims,
28 listed, for 12.6% representation
|
|
NAME |
CLAIM |
EARNINGS
SINCE |
CURRENT
CLAIMING |
|
|
|
|
CLAIMED |
PRICE |
|
1 |
Kimala |
5,000 |
3,000 |
8,000 |
|
2 |
Swiss Ban |
3,000 |
3,000 |
3,000 |
|
3 |
Dos Rojos |
10,000 |
2,200 |
6,250 |
|
4 |
Savan Dev |
7,500 |
4,000 |
12,000 |
|
5 |
Bright Poli |
3,000 |
500 |
Claimed 3,000 |
|
6 |
Shake Kid |
10,000 |
300 |
5,000 |
|
7 |
St. Blach |
15,000 |
1,400 |
8,000 |
|
8 |
Beat The Band |
4,000 |
1,000 |
3,200 |
|
9 |
Make A B |
10,000 |
4,000 |
12,000 |
|
10 |
Pay the N |
7,500 |
3,500 |
6,000 |
|
11 |
Hey Doc |
5,000 |
1,400 |
4,000 |
|
12 |
Got the Ca |
4,000 |
6,800* |
12,000 |
|
13 |
Racin Fever |
4,000 |
1,200 |
3,200 |
|
14 |
Lil Ranch |
8,250 |
1,000 |
5,000 |
|
15 |
Fiery Com |
5,000 |
5,200 |
5,000 |
|
16 |
Papa La Ru |
12,500 |
10,000* |
10,000 |
|
17 |
Mypawas |
10,000 |
3,000 |
Allowance |
|
18 |
Wanyo |
5,000 |
3,200 |
12,500 |
|
19 |
Triumphant |
10,000 |
6,700* |
12,000 |
|
20 |
Bright Polic |
3,000 |
4,200 |
3,200 |
|
21 |
Fair Brandy |
5,000 |
2,700 |
8,000 |
|
22 |
Grove Line |
7,500 |
10,000 |
Claimed 8,000 |
|
23 |
Shake Kid S |
5,000 |
12,500* |
8,000 |
|
24 |
Him a Injun |
8,500 |
900 |
12,000 |
|
25 |
Pal and Pal |
10,000 |
3,300 |
10,000 |
|
26 |
Sheckys Im |
12,500 |
2,500 |
8,000 |
|
27 |
Diala Six |
12,500 |
2,840 |
Allowance |
|
28 |
Star |
8,250 |
4,400 |
12,500 |
|
|
Totals |
211,000 |
104,740 |
222,350 |
|
|
Average |
7,535 |
3,740 |
7,941 |
|
|
|
|
* Shows Profit |
|
Analysis of Chart A reinforces the conclusion that claiming is a
business for trainers.
(It is possible for you to become a trainer. It is not hard to do. Training race horses does not take a
genius. If you want to make money with
claimers, becoming a trainer to eliminate some of the daily expenses is worth
consideration.)
The first trend (which is not shown) is that 82 per cent of the horses
claimed were geldings. This is
consistent with the fact that approximately 83 per cent of the horses in mixed
claiming races are geldings. As geldings
are good only for racing, this insures the trainer will have horses to train;
they will not be taken away to the breeding farm.
While the five horses earning their keep did not earn a big profit, they
didn’t lose money. That’s not bad. It’s good.
Because if the owners of other claimers had followed
the rules, they very will may have earned profits also. In any case, the 18 per cent which made money
demonstrates potential. You’ll see how
very soon.
Three trainers did make a profit on their claims. Interestingly, those trainers did not claim
for an owner, but instead, claimed for themselves. At the very least, this would indicate when a
trainer finds a good claim, he takes it for himself. For an owner, a trainer claims rather
indiscriminately. (Remember, I said you
had to be cold, calculating, and ruthless.
I’ll also give you another rule to live by when claiming—use the guides
in this book, the not trainer’s judgment.)
Now for potential.
Only two-year-olds have big potential.
They have big money handicaps and stakes ahead. But there are few races with an inexpensive
claiming tag for two-year-olds. Owners
always tend to hope their horses will become the fastest on the grounds, even
though the horses have proven they will not; therefore, since hope springs
eternal, owners do not want to lose horses for a cheap claiming price.
However, when a maiden two-year-old is dropped to the bottom claiming
price, has not had more than three races, shows at least one good speed index
or some good works, he or she is a prospect to claim.
With only works to judge the horse, or less than four races, it is a pretty safe bet neither the owner, trainer, nor jockey
has a true idea of the horse’s future ability.
In addition, a horse at the bottom as a two-year-old is not at the
bottom as a three-year-old. (For race
horses, the three-year-old year is the easiest, since they can run in races for
3-year-olds only and in restricted races: non-winners of two, non-winners since
a certain date, fillies only, etc.)
Most two-year-olds tend to improve with practice and age. It is only the starts which win the first
time out, or overcome minor mistakes to run an excellent race. Most good, solid horses develop as they go
along. In addition, with only three or
less races, the chances are fair the horse is still relatively sound. (Sore shins are most common problem and than
can be managed.)
Two-year-olds with slow works, slow speed indexes, more than three races
without a win and currently not racing against the very best, are not good
claims if you intend to make money.
Don’t claim them.
Three-year-olds are a good claim only at the beginning of the year. Three-year-olds with less than six months of
racing left are poor claims. Very soon
they’ll be racing with older horses, and that most often squeezes their earning
potential. Don’t claim from this
category.
But, if you’re interested in a three-year-old, it must have at least six
months of racing left as well as meet all the other rules for claiming.
Older horses, four and up, seldom make money for an owner. They are a good claim to keep a trainer in
business because they at least produce “day money”. See Chart B.
Only claim older horses which win at least 25 per cent of the time.
From Chart B, several interesting patterns emerge. The figures are accurate, while the patterns
are logical conclusions drawn from those figure. (It is impossible to know the actual thoughts
behind the claims.)
Twenty-nine trainers claimed 57 horses.
Only 12 of the claims made money—21 per cent of the total. Four of the claims were for the trainers, so
that reduces the owner’s money-making percentage to only 14 per cent.
CHART B
Analysis
of Claims by Trainer
|
|
NAME |
CLAIMED FOR |
PRICE |
EARNINGS |
CURRENT
CLAIMING |
|
|
|
|
|
SINCE
CLAIMED |
PRICE |
|
1 |
Brittos |
other |
8,250 |
1,000 |
5,000 |
|
2 |
|
other |
10,000 |
4,000 |
12,000 |
|
3 |
Cooper |
other |
7,500 |
800 |
4,000 |
|
4 |
Cooper |
other |
10,000 |
2,200 |
6,250 |
|
5 |
Cooper |
other |
5,000 |
5,200 |
6,250 |
|
6 |
Cooper |
other |
10,000 |
6,700* |
12,000 |
|
7 |
Cooper |
other |
15,000 |
9,000* |
16,000 |
|
8 |
Cooper |
other |
12,500 |
2,500 |
8,000 |
|
9 |
Domingu |
other |
4,000 |
2,400 |
4,000 |
|
10 |
Francisco |
self |
3,000 |
4,200 |
3,200 |
|
11 |
Francisco |
other |
7,500 |
3,500 |
6,000 |
|
12 |
Frey |
other |
4,000 |
1,200 |
3,200 |
|
13 |
Greenslat |
other |
5,000 |
3,200 |
5,000 |
|
14 |
Hall |
other |
5,000 |
2,200 |
6,000 |
|
15 |
Hall |
other |
5,000 |
4,800 |
10,000 |
|
16 |
Hart |
other |
7,500 |
4,300 |
3,200 |
|
17 |
Hart |
other |
8,250 |
600 |
6,250 |
|
18 |
Hart |
other |
7,500 |
7,200* |
16,000 |
|
19 |
Hart |
other |
8,250 |
4,400 |
5,000 |
|
20 |
Hart |
other |
7,500 |
11,400* |
12,000 |
|
21 |
Hart |
other |
5,000 |
1,400 |
4,000 |
|
22 |
Halloway |
other |
7,500 |
4,000 |
12,000 |
|
23 |
Halloway |
other |
10,000 |
300 |
5,000 |
|
24 |
Halloway |
other |
12,500 |
1,400 |
8,000 |
|
25 |
|
other |
3,000 |
3,000 |
3,000 |
|
26 |
|
other |
5,000 |
500 |
5,000 |
|
27 |
Jones |
other |
3,000 |
5,300 |
3,000 |
|
28 |
Lopez |
self |
12,500 |
10,000* |
10,000 |
|
29 |
Lopez |
self |
5,000 |
10,000* |
8,000 |
|
30 |
Maldonat |
other |
15,000 |
4,700 |
12,500 |
|
31 |
Maldonat |
other |
10,000 |
8,200* |
16,000 |
|
32 |
Olemach |
other |
8,500 |
900 |
12,000 |
|
33 |
Pisciotta |
other |
10,000 |
2,600 |
6,250 |
|
34 |
Proctor |
self |
3,000 |
5,200 |
5,000 |
|
35 |
Rothblu |
other |
7,500 |
10,000* |
10,000 |
|
36 |
Rothblu |
other |
4,000 |
300 |
4,000 |
|
37 |
Rothblu |
other |
12,000 |
2,800 |
Maiden |
|
38 |
Schvanev |
other |
10,000 |
3,300 |
10,000 |
|
39 |
Steinmiller |
other |
5,000 |
6,500* |
4,000 |
|
40 |
Steinmiller |
other |
4,000 |
3,100 |
4,000 |
|
41 |
Steinmiller |
other |
6,250 |
3,700 |
10,000 |
|
42 |
Steinmiller |
other |
4,000 |
1,000 |
3,000 |
|
43 |
Stokes |
other |
3,000 |
2,400 |
5,000 |
|
44 |
Vischer |
other |
5,000 |
2,200 |
5,000 |
|
45 |
Vischer |
self |
5,000 |
6,400* |
6,250 |
|
46 |
Welch |
other |
3,500 |
4,600 |
4,000 |
|
47 |
Wells |
other |
5,000 |
3,000 |
8,000 |
|
48 |
|
other |
5,000 |
3,800 |
4,000 |
|
49 |
Wimber |
other |
3,000 |
500 |
3,000 |
|
50 |
Wenzel |
self |
4,000 |
6,800* |
12,000 |
|
51 |
Wenzel |
self |
5,000 |
2,700 |
8,000 |
|
52 |
Wenzel |
self |
20,000 |
5,600 |
25,000 |
|
53 |
Woodho |
other |
10,000 |
3,000 |
stakes |
|
54 |
Woodho |
other |
8,250 |
2,800 |
6,250 |
|
55 |
Woodho |
other |
15,000 |
11,700* |
16,000 |
|
56 |
Wood |
other |
8,500 |
600 |
12,000 |
|
57 |
Wood |
other |
8,500 |
2,800 |
12,000 |
|
|
|
|
|
* Shows Profit |
|
Of the eight claims which made money for the owners, all were part of
several claims made by that trainer. When
all the claims for that trainer were combined, none showed an overall profit.
On the other hand, a claim made by a trainer for himself is practically
risk free. The trainer doesn’t have the
high overhead of an owner. The claim
provides the trainer with a horse to run, and as the trainer normally runs the
horse one step below the original claim price, he stands to make a little
money, even if he loses the horse.
Don’t let Chart B give you the impression all trainers exercise poor
judgment in claiming for owners, or that trainers don’t know how to make good
claims. What Chart B doesn’t explain is
that many of the claims were probably insisted upon by owners, even when the
trainer recommended against the claim.
Sometimes following a claim, owners refuse to allow the trainer to make
money with the new horse because the owner won’t let the horse run at the
original claiming price or lower. Also,
many claims are made to get the horse as a broodmare prospect. The horse may run again at a very high price
with the prayer she’ll increase her earnings a bit without the possibility of
being taken. This is foolish, but is
done quite often. Usually the mare could
be purchased outright for less than the claiming price. And most often she doesn’t make money at the
higher claiming level.
Some claims lose money just on bad luck—injuries being the most common.
Study Chart B and you will see that Cooper claimed six horses which earned
$26,000 in six months, less an estimated $36,000 in training expenses in six
months, for a loss of $10,000 in the six month period. Trainer Hart claimed six horses earning
$29,000, with a $7,000 loss.
Trainer Rothblum claimed three horses earning
$13,000, but had a loss of $5,000 for the six months. Trainer Woodhouse made one good claim which
pulled two bad claims up to the break-even.
One other trainer broke even.
The losses and break-even for these claims for owners are based on the
owner paying $1,000 per month in training expenses. So the earnings, less the expenses for six
months, produce the loss.
Only one trainer, Lopez, shows a profit—and that is from horses he
claimed for himself.
So how do all these negative factors show any potential for you to make
money with claimers? Easy! The horses which make money for either owners
or trainers follow patterns the statistics don’t show. You must study the horse’s form and take a
personal look at the horses and their races in order to have the information
you need to follow the rules to making money with claimers.
You cannot violate a single rule!
“That’s tough,” you say.
You bet it is. But not violating
a single rule will make you money, while others who are violating the rules
lose money.
Here are the rules:
1. Find performance consistency at a single
claiming level (price). A horse which
wins one in
four for another trainer will most likely win one in four for you.
A horse to be claimed must be consistent, either in his works or his
races. With two-year-olds, this is
especially important since the horse will not have much form.
Consistency means the horse has earned money—first through fifth
place—in no less than 75 per cent of his starts. Consistency can also be “on the board”,
meaning first, second, third, or fourth 50 per cent of the time.
No consistency, no claim.
2. A horse may be claimed at his consistency
level, or one level below. He cannot
be claimed
above, or two levels below his consistent price.
As an example, if a horse has been running consistently on the board, or
earning a check at the $6,250 claiming level, then he should only be claimed
for $6,250 or $5,000. A drop below
$5,000 means the trainer is trying to get rid of the horse, rather than just
dropping to win. Trainers drop big to
sell because they know there is always someone who thinks he can fix the horse
and make him better. You know it can’t
be done, so let someone else lose money trying.
3. If you must run the horse within 30 days
to keep him qualified to race, and
you must move
him up 25 per cent, then run the horse one step above his
claimed
price. After that, drop him back to the
price at which he was claimed;
or if you want
to make more money, drop him one notch below his claimed price.
If you are not required to “jump” the
horse during the 30 days after claiming,
run the horse
back at the price for which you claimed him.
Keeping the horse at the price claimed makes all trainers think there is
something wrong with the horse, and they usually won’t touch him for at least
two races. A drop one notch below the
original claim almost assures you no one will take the horse until they’ve seen
him run at least three times, even though he is probably winning.
If the horse was consistent at $6,250, for example, he’ll do well at the
$5,000 claiming level. He’ll make you
even more money if you race him for $4,000.
And 99 times out of 100, he won’t be claimed. If he is, you’ll probably still make a good
return on your investment just off the purse money he has earned.
For everyone else, the challenge of claiming is moving the horse up the
claiming ladder. That’s an ego
trip. For you, claiming can be fun, but
can’t be about ego; it is a way to make money—so never move a horse above his
consistency level. (If you get a
super-horse and can move him up it will be very obvious, and the rule becomes
“let your profits run.”)
Someday, if you claim often enough, you’ll get a horse which can move up
dramatically. If you get one, move him
up, and immediately start trying to sell him privately at an inflated
price. You will be selling potential
again. No horse stays up forever, and
you must take a big profit whenever it is offered if you expect horses to make
you money.
4. Never claim a maiden three-year-old.
Once in every 100 claims you hit a big winner, but most of the time
you’ll lose money. The only time you
might risk taking a three-year-old maiden is if he or she has superior breeding
and has been running with stakes company. Suddenly the horse is dropped into the
claiming ranks, appears sound and is cheap.
This horse may produce an income if no attempt is made to “move the
horse up”. Most likely the horse has a
major problem of some kind, and will have a limited racing career. I say stay away from the horse. Taking a three-year-old maiden is just
gambling and a violation of the rules.
But on occasion, if all the factors add up to potential, and you don’t
mind losing the money, drop the claim slip.
Just don’t blame me. You gave in
to temptation.
5. Claim only from trainers who are less than
the best.
Good trainers get all the run a horse has to offer, so the horses are
usually consistent. They should be
consistent for you too, but often it will take time to figure out the horse,
and while you are doing it, it is costing you money. Take horses from trainers who have large
stables, or have poor in-the-money records.
If you followed the rules, the horse you take will be a good one in
spite of the trainer, and should be easy to keep going on a consistent
money-making level.
6. Claim a horse which doesn’t appear to be
in top physical condition, but is still
consistent.
Don’t take a horse which needs running bandages to get through a
race. Take a horse which has a poor hair
coat or even one which is under weight.
You can’t fix chipped bones or torn tendons, but you can easily and
inexpensively fix teeth, deworm and feed adequately.
Even though you know you can improve the physical condition of the
horse, continue to run at, or below, the original claiming price.
7. Never claim from the lowest claiming price
offered at the racing meet. If the
bottom
claim is
$3,000, the lowest claim you should make is $4,000. Once a horse is
at the bottom,
there is no place left to go. You cannot
find an easier racing level.
The only exception to this rule applies
to two-year-old maidens. The bottom for
a
two-year-old
is usually at least two steps higher than it is for three-year-olds.
8. Never claim a horse you know has an
injury.
9. You cannot move your horse to a higher
claiming level until he has won for you
at the
claimed-for price at least twice.
If you claim a consistent $6,250 horse for
$5,000, run the horse back for $5,000.
If you are required to run at a 25 percent jump, then do it once, and
get back to the $5,000 level, or even better, to the $4,000 level. This should assure you of at least a
paycheck. (If you claim for $5,000, run
for $4,000, win the purse, but lose the horse, you probably make no less than
$1,000 profit considering the winner’s share should be $2,000 or more.) If you don’t win and don’t lose the horse,
any income helps cover training costs until the
next race, which the horse will most likely win—if you have been
following all the rules. Once the horse
wins twice, you can jump him one claiming level. If the horse is getting paychecks, and is
claimed on the first or second win, I guarantee you’ll be making money.
Once the horse has won twice, move him up one level and keep him there
for four races. He should win one in
four. If he does, fine; if he doesn’t,
drop him to the original level. You can
jump the horse again if he stays in the money consistently and wins twice again
for you at that level.
Make no excuses for the horse’s performance. If you run the horse five times at the
claimed-for level and he doesn’t earn money at least four times (sometimes bad
racing luck is a fact—things happen, but are not an excuse), drop the horse one
level and try him five more times. He
should earn four out of five times, or he gets dropped. He cannot move up until he wins two races at
that level. If there is no lower level
at the track at which he is racing, find a weaker racing program and send the
horse there.
These rules apply as long as the horse stays sound. If he has a physical problem, decisions will
have to be made.
Getting sentimental about a race horse or fearing he’ll be claimed will
cost you money. You cannot make money
with a horse if he isn’t earning.
Of all the ways to make money with horses, claiming is the
toughest. But you can do it, if you don’t
violate the rules.